Here Come the Phillies? - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

Here Come the Phillies? Stuck

Posted on September 13, 2012 at 10:14 AM.

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Most preseason predictions had the Philadelphia Phillies winning the National League East. The feeling was that even with a subpar offense, the elite rotation would carry them to another division title in a close race with the Braves and perhaps the Nationals. But, everything went wrong for the Phillies. The offense was worse than expected. And, the rotation was an utter disappointment. Something was wrong with Roy Halladay from the very first pitch he threw in Spring Training, even though he managed to navigate April successfully.. Cliff Lee �couldn�t win�. Aside from Cole Hamels, the staff was underperforming. The Phillies sank after treading water for the first two months and were in last place for most of the season.

There was thought that perhaps they could make a run in the second half as they began to get their stars back. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley made their returns right before the All-Star break. Roy Halladay was returning. The only team that won 100 games in 2011 was finally in tact. But, a 9-19 June was followed by a 10-13 July. That record forced the trades of Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence, a signal that the Phillies were throwing in the towel on the season.

But, a funny thing happened after they were thought to be throwing in the towel. The Phillies began to win. With a first half record of 37-50, the hole looked too far to dig out of. It may be, but since the break, the Phillies are 35-21. They are now just three games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot. Now winners of seven straight games, the Phillies are once again in position to make another late season comeback.

In this extended run of success, their first two division titles get a bit lost because of all of their success. But, the 2007 title was a result of a late season comeback. The 2008 team was even more miraculous as they came for 3.5 games back on September 10th to win the division. The core of those teams, at least on the offensive core, is still here. Howard, Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz were key members of those teams. Closer Jonathan Papelbon is no stranger to comebacks either.

The turnaround has really come from all aspects. Through their first 119 games, Phillies� hurlers compiled a 4.07 ERA, along with rates of 8.7 H/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, and 1.1 HR/9. Since then, the Philadelphia staff has been stellar. From August 18th on, the Philadelphia pitching staff has a 2.79 ERA and rates of 8.2 H/9, 2.3 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, and 0.9 HR/9. Roy Halladay stabilized in August, pitching to a 4-1 record with a 3.32 ERA in 6 starts, his only above average month aside from April. Cliff Lee has pitched well all season; his luck is finally beginning to even out. And, Cole Hamels has been an ace all season.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the turnaround is the offense. For the first 119 games, the Phillies hit .254/.312/.396, averaging just 4.1 runs per game. Since then, and without Victorino and Pence, the Phillies are hitting .270/.339/.417 and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. Jimmy Rollins is a shell of his former self, but in September he is batting .310/.348/.571 with 3 home runs. Since August 1st, Utley has an OPS of .833 with 10 doubles, 5 home runs, and 15 RBI. Although Ryan Howard�s return hasn�t been as successful, he did hit 6 home runs and drive in 25 runs in August. The aging core of the team evidently has one last gasp in them.

The question now becomes whether or not the Phillies can complete the comeback. The schedule is certainly in their favor in the immediate future, but gets more difficult as they progress. Having just swept the lowly Marlins, the Phillies now head to Houston for a four game set with the Astros. That is followed up with a date with the Mets in New York for three. The Mets series will be difficult as the Phillies have won just 5 of the 15 games played between the two clubs. The Mets took two of three in their last meeting in mid-August. They then have three games at home against the Braves, another team that they�ve beat just 5 times in 15 games.

If the Phillies can get through that stretch, they face the Nationals for three at home, followed by three at the Marlins, and then the season finale in Washington. They are 7-5 against the Nationals this season, who may have already clinched the division before that final series and could work on aligning the rotation for the playoffs. It will be a difficult task as the Phillies not only have to win, but they have to leapfrog the Dodgers, Pirates, and Cardinals. They also can�t overlook the Brewers who are on a similar roll and have the same record.

The odds are long that the Phillies overcome their deficit to win a playoff spot. But, they are just three games behind with 20 games to play. The experience of a veteran team can never be discounted, especially a veteran team that has played and won World Series.

The new Wild Card system was set up for this exact type of scenario. It is giving teams another chance to get into the dance. Under the old system, a team like the Phillies would already be thinking about next season. But, with just 20 games left, they are still thinking about the playoffs. Many more teams are still thinking about the playoffs. And, that is good for baseball.

The Phillies cannot be discounted. A veteran team that has had success, even one that is flawed and too old, can find a way to get into the dance. The 2000 Yankees limped into the playoffs with 87 wins and were terrible for much of the last 40 games of the regular season. But, the veteran team got hot and wound up winning the World Series. If the Phillies can succeed in getting their second chance, their pitching staff can carry them in the playoffs, even with the one game first round. For the other contenders, that is a scary thought.

Sound off OS: Can the Phillies complete the comeback and get into the playoffs?

Comments

# 1 COLE THE SHMOLE @ Sep 13

LETS GO PHILLIES I BELIEVE IN YOU!!!

# 2 BIG17EASY @ Sep 13

You say the Phillies were 37-50 in the first half and are now 26-14 after the break. That adds up to 63-64, yet their record is 72-71. I wonder where those other nine wins and seven losses came from? Spring training, perhaps? Or maybe they were exchanged as part of the Victorino, Pence or Blanton deals? Or maybe it's magic? I have my suspicions, but I'll keep them to myself.

# 3 Gary Armida @ Sep 13

@Big17EASY It was fixed..transposed the wrong numbers. Thanks for pointing it out. No thoughts on the Phillies?

# 4 Feldman011teen @ Sep 13

You do realize the bullpen was the overall killer right? The bullpen has tightened up since August 1. No longer blowing games.

# 5 Gary Armida @ Sep 13

Rotation:
1st half: 28-34, 4.04 ERA, 3.66 K/BB
2nd half: 23-14, 3.38 ERA, 4.25 K/BB

Bullpen:

1st half: 9-16 4.76 ERA, 2.57 K/BB
2nd half: 12-7 3.06 ERA, 2.72 K/BB

Both improved by similar rates (beyond those I listed) so I lumped them into one group as pitching staff.